Why SpaceX Stock Keeps Rising: Inside the $2 Trillion Low-Float Surge in SPCX

SpaceX stock is up 8% today, trading above $173, extending the frenzy after its June 12 Nasdaq debut. The stock listed at $135, opened at $150, and closed at $161 on Friday. In just three trading sessions, it is now up nearly 28% from its listing price, despite the company posting a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025. 

Over the same weekend, Elon Musk added to the momentum by posting on X that SpaceX could generate $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. Billionaire investor Ron Baron, who has already made a 1,312% return on his SpaceX stake, predicted the company will be worth $30 trillion by 2040. Markets loved both claims. Retail investors piled in.

Let's break down what is actually driving this rally in SPCX stock, whether any of the headline numbers survive basic math, and the one date in December 2026 that every buyer of SpaceX right now needs to understand before they place another order.

SpaceX Stock: Numbers Behind $2.1 Trillion Valuation

SpaceX raised $75 billion in a single listing. The demand reportedly hit $150 billion for a $75 billion raise. Goldman Sachs led the deal; Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan were behind it.

Source: SpaceX S-1 filing (May 2026), Reuters, Fortune, Yahoo Finance | Data as of June 15, 2026

The 115x revenue multiple deserves to be put in context against comparable listings.

• Facebook (now Meta) traded at 28x revenue at its 2012 IPO, growing at 88% annually. 
• Google traded at 10x at its 2004 debut 
• Palantir currently carries the highest price-to-sales ratio in the S&P 500 at roughly 67x. 

SpaceX is asking you to pay more relative to its revenue than any of those companies ever did at listing, for a company that is currently losing nearly $5 billion a year.

How Much of SpaceX’s Valuation Comes From xAI?

A lot has been said about SpaceX "three businesses in one". Here is the more useful question: at a $2.1 trillion market cap, exactly what is the market implying for each of them?

• A sum-of-parts (SoTP) analysis forces this into the open. Starlink is a profitable high-growth subscription infrastructure business. Apply a generous 15x revenue multiple: that gives Starlink a standalone value of approximately $171 billion.
• The Space segment, government launch contracts, Starshield defense, Starship development, fits the profile of a capital-intensive aerospace contractor. Standard multiples for that category sit around 5x revenue: approximately $21 billion. Add them up and the non-AI businesses are worth roughly $192 billion.

Source: SpaceX S-1 (May 2026), Internal SoTP analysis. Multiples are approximate.

You are not really buying a rocket company or a satellite internet company. You are predominantly buying xAI at a $1.9 trillion implied valuation. For context: OpenAI, which has ChatGPT, broader enterprise adoption, and roughly $20 billion in annualized revenue was valued at $852 billion in its most recent funding round. The market is pricing xAI at more than six times OpenAI.

SpaceX’s S-1 filing revealed a striking detail: xAI is making major revenue by renting compute to its own AI rivals. Anthropic, one of Grok’s direct competitors, agreed to pay xAI $1.25 billion per month until May 2029 for exclusive access to the Colossus 1 data center in Memphis. A June 2026 amendment added a Google deal worth $920 million per month for about 110,000 Nvidia GPUs.

Together, that is $2.17 billion per month, or nearly $26 billion a year, from Anthropic and Google renting xAI’s compute. The filing says these deals help xAI “monetize idle compute capacity.” 

That matters because Colossus 1 was reportedly running at only around 11% utilization before the Anthropic deal. xAI built the supercomputer for Grok, but weaker usage left much of the capacity unused. Financially, $26 billion in annual rental revenue is powerful. Strategically, it is less clean. 

These contracts can be ended with 90 days’ notice, and the demand may fade as Google, Microsoft and Amazon Web Services complete their own GPU buildouts through 2026 and 2027. 

So the concern is simple: SPCX’s $1.9 trillion implied valuation prices xAI like an AI product powerhouse, but a major part of today’s revenue story comes from renting spare compute to competitors, including Anthropic, which is paying $15 billion a year to train models that compete directly with Grok.

Elon Musk’s $1 Trillion Revenue Target vs Wall Street Forecasts

Two days after listing, Musk posted on X that SpaceX would hit $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, and "probably more" by 2031. That is a 53x expansion from $18.7 billion over five years. Wall Street, including the banks that organized the IPO, is not buying it.

Source: Goldman Sachs research note, Morgan Stanley projections, Musk's X post

Goldman's $474 billion projection is already aggressive. It requires xAI revenue to grow approximately 100-fold in five years, from $3.2 billion to $322 billion. This growth is expected to come at a time when Grok trails ChatGPT and Claude in user metrics and market mindshare. Morgan Stanley's $330 billion is a third below Goldman's number. Musk is nearly double Goldman.

One thing worth knowing: Goldman Sachs is SpaceX's lead underwriter. It earned fees on the $75 billion raise. The conflict of interest is disclosed in the prospectus and is material. When you read Goldman's bullish projections, read the fine print too.

For Musk's $1 trillion target to work by 2030, SpaceX would need to sustain roughly 40-45% compound annual revenue growth for five consecutive years. No company of SpaceX's current size has ever achieved that for that duration.

Ron Baron’s SpaceX Bet: Why Investors Should Tread Carefully

Baron Capital has owned SpaceX since 2017 and built its firm-wide stake through an initial investment of roughly $2 billion over the years. By its June 2026 public listing, that stake had grown to a valuation of between $12 billion and $15 billion, cementing it as one of the most successful compounding bets in the fund manager's history.

By April 2026, SpaceX accounted for 33% of the assets in Baron’s flagship fund, making it the fund’s absolute largest holding. Baron now projects that SpaceX could scale to a total valuation of between $10 trillion and $30 trillion over the next 10 to 15 years, translating to a per-share price of approximately $2,300.

For perspective, all global public equity markets are worth roughly $110-120 trillion today. So Baron’s bull case implies SpaceX could one day be worth around 25% of all listed companies in the world.

That does not mean Baron is wrong. He has a strong track record and was early to SpaceX. But investors should read the prediction with context: he has already made around 13x his money, and SpaceX now forms one-third of his portfolio. A higher valuation benefits him directly, so this is not exactly neutral analysis.

Can SpaceX Become a $30 Trillion Company?

US GDP in 2025 was approximately $29.3 trillion. Baron is predicting SpaceX will become worth more than the entire US economy in nearly fifteen years. Nvidia offers the most credible modern comparison for this kind of valuation trajectory. But here is what Nvidia had that SpaceX does not: 

The profitability question is not a minor detail, it is the central fact of this investment.

Morgan Stanley’s bull case already projects SpaceX revenue at $3.4 trillion by 2040. If SpaceX becomes a mature, high-margin business and gets valued at around 20x earnings, a $15-20 trillion valuation by 2040 is theoretically possible.

But that is the best-case version of the story. It needs Starship to scale commercial launches, Starlink and orbital AI to deliver strong margins, xAI to catch up with global AI leaders, and SpaceX to execute almost perfectly for the next 14 years.

That is why Ron Baron’s prediction should be seen with caution. Musk has built category-defining companies, but competitive advantages do not last forever.

Why SpaceX Stock Is Rising: Low Float, Index Buying

Here’s the catch: only 4.3% of SpaceX shares were publicly tradable at listing, or about $80-85 billion in a $2.1 trillion company. Musk still controls 82.4% of voting power and holds around 40% economic interest, while most shares remain locked.

Then index demand kicked in. Nasdaq changed its rules to allow SpaceX into the Nasdaq 100 after just 15 trading days, FTSE Russell cut its timeline to five days, and MSCI added SpaceX to MSCI World from June 13.

That matters because index funds become forced buyers. BNP Paribas estimated around $8 billion of Nasdaq 100-linked passive buying in the first month, while total passive inflows across Nasdaq 100, FTSE Russell and MSCI could reach $30 billion.

So, $30 billion of forced buying chased an $80-85 billion float. That is less price discovery, more supply-demand pressure. Indian investors have seen this in IPOs like Zomato, where low float and lock-ins amplified buying first, and reversed later when locked shares entered the market. SpaceX's version of that reversal has a calendar date: December 2026.

SpaceX Lock-Up Expiry: Key Dates Investors Should Watch

SpaceX's lock-up is unusually complex, staggered rather than a single 180-day expiry. The structure works like this:

• September 2026 (after Q2 earnings): 20% of eligible insider shares become tradable
• After Q3 2026 earnings: 28% of remaining locked shares unlock
• December 2026: the bulk of remaining insider stock enters the market
• Musk personally: 366-day restriction — he cannot sell until approximately June 2027

The investors waiting to sell in September and December include Founders Fund, DFJ Growth, D1 Capital, Fidelity, and Thrive Capital, alongside thousands of early SpaceX employees who have been waiting years for liquidity. None of them are obligated to hold past their unlock date.

Historical precedent is consistent and unkind to late retail buyers. 

• Palantir rallied from $10 to nearly $40 between its September 2020 IPO and February 2021 lock-up expiry, then fell 13% in a single session when insiders could finally sell. 
• Rivian lost roughly 20% on its lock-up date when Ford disclosed it was selling. 
• Uber hit an all-time low at lock-up expiry, down 40% from its IPO price. Facebook's retail buyers in May 2012 sat on a 50% loss for over a year as successive lock-up tranches cleared.

The staggered structure at SpaceX is more gradual than a single event, but the direction of supply pressure through the second half of 2026 is not ambiguous. Trefis described the staggered structure bluntly: "it was engineered to expand the public float rapidly enough to maximize SpaceX's weighting in the Nasdaq 100 after fast-track inclusion, which in turn increases the forced passive buying from index funds." 

The prospectus confirms this. The mechanism is designed to maximize early price support, which also maximizes the valuation at which insiders eventually sell.

Should Investors Buy SpaceX Stock Now?

SpaceX became the sixth-largest US company by market cap on its first trading day. Starlink alone is one of the more impressive businesses built this decade. At $2.1 trillion, you are also paying for an AI division losing $6 billion a year, Starship's commercial future, and orbital data centers that do not yet generate revenue. 

Morningstar's probability-weighted fair value for the entire company is $63 per share, roughly $780-825 billion total, about 63% below where the stock trades today. CFRA issued an outright Sell rating at $115, below the IPO price. These are independent firms with no underwriting fees at stake.

For investors with genuine long-term conviction, the smarter entry may simply be to wait.

1. Wait for September, when the first lock-up tranche hits and early institutional holders start selling. 
2. Wait for Q3 earnings in October, when xAI's trajectory becomes clearer. 
3. Watch whether Grok is actually closing the gap with ChatGPT. 

The stock will still exist in December 2026. The question is whether the price will be more or less sensible by then.