Nebius Stock Surges 18% to an All-Time High. The Real Story Is Hiding in the Margins

On the morning of May 13, 2026, before most of Wall Street had finished their coffee, Nebius Group dropped a quarterly earnings report that sent NBIS stock flying to an all-time high of $213.

Revenue grew 684% year-over-year, smashing every analyst estimate on the street. The EPS beat was even wilder: a loss of just $0.23 per share versus the expected loss of $0.78. But here's what everyone is missing in the headline frenzy: a single line deep in the financials that suggests Nebius is not just growing fast, it may be closer to real profitability than the market realizes.

Let's break down why NBIS stock surged 18% today, what the earnings actually reveal beneath the surface, and what this means for Indian investors watching the global AI infrastructure race.

What Does Nebius Actually Do?

Think of the AI boom like the massive wave of food delivery startups in India. Most companies are trying to become the next Zomato or Swiggy by building AI apps and models. Nebius, meanwhile, is not running the restaurant. It is providing the kitchens, electricity, delivery infrastructure, and roads that all these companies need to operate.

In simple terms, Nebius builds the heavy backend infrastructure for AI. It operates massive GPU-powered data centres and cloud platforms that companies use to train and run AI models. Instead of building AI products itself, Nebius rents out the computing power needed to create them, powered by NVIDIA’s advanced chips.

Founded by the team behind Yandex, Nebius rebranded in 2024 and is now listed on Nasdaq. The timing worked perfectly because global tech giants are currently spending hundreds of billions of dollars on AI infrastructure, and Nebius sits right in the middle of that demand cycle.

NBIS Earnings: Numbers That Cheered Investors

Here is a clean snapshot of what Q1 2026 Nebius Earnings showed:

Source: Nebius Group Q1 2026 Earnings Release, Business Wire, May 13, 2026

The revenue beat was strong, coming in at $399M versus the consensus estimate of around $375M to $389M. But the number that should really catch your attention is the Adjusted EBITDA line.

Nebius Earnings Number Nobody Else Is Talking About

Most coverage on NBIS earnings is focused on the revenue beat. Fair enough. A 684% year-over-year jump is hard to ignore. But investors should zoom into what is happening with the cost structure, because that is where the real story lives.

A year ago, Nebius spent 49 cents on every dollar of revenue just on the cost of goods. By Q1 2026, that had fallen to just 26 cents. Total operating costs as a percentage of revenues collapsed from 336% to 132% in a single year. That is operating leverage kicking in at scale.

The result: Adjusted EBITDA flipped from a loss of $53.7 million to a profit of $129.5 million. For a company spending $16 to $20 billion in capital expenditure this year alone, turning EBITDA-positive this early in its buildout is a signal that the unit economics are working. 

Nebius also announced today that it has secured up to 1.2 GW of power and land for a new AI factory in Pennsylvania, expanding its US footprint significantly.

The Deal Stack Giving Nebius Its Moat

Nebius did not arrive at these numbers by accident. The company has built a contracted revenue backlog approaching $50 billion, anchored by three landmark deals:

• Meta Platforms: A deal expanded in March 2026 to as much as $27 billion for dedicated GPU infrastructure
• Microsoft: A five-year deal signed in September 2025 worth up to $19.4 billion
• NVIDIA: A $2 billion strategic investment in March 2026 for an 8.3% stake, with CEO Jensen Huang describing Nebius as the infrastructure backbone for the "agentic era"

On top of this, Nebius announced the acquisition of Eigen AI for $643 million on May 1. Eigen specializes in making AI model deployment faster and cheaper by cutting compute and memory requirements. This is Nebius moving up the value chain from just renting GPUs to offering smarter, software-defined AI services.

What Analysts Are Saying About NBIS Stock

Nebius Stock has surged more than 450% in just the last one year. If an Indian has invested Rs 1 lakh in the stock at that time, today their investment would have been around Rs 5.69 lakh.

Here is where key analysts stood ahead of, and following, the earnings release:

The bear case, Wolfe Research flags, centers on execution risk. Nebius is guiding for $3 to $3.4 billion in 2026 revenue, up from $530 million in full-year 2025. That kind of ramp requires everything to go right: data centers coming online on schedule, hyperscaler deployments running smoothly, and the Eigen AI acquisition integrating without friction.

The stock's valuation also demands respect for the risk. At today's prices, the market is pricing in near-flawless execution for several years ahead.

What Should Indian Investors Do?

Indian investor interest in Nebius stock is rising rapidly. On INDmoney, investments in Nebius shares jumped 56.65%, while search interest surged 93% in the last 30 days. For Indian investors tracking NBIS through, here is a grounded way to think about this:

1. What is encouraging: The EBITDA flip, the margin improvement, and the contracted backlog of $50 billion give Nebius a level of revenue visibility that most high-growth tech companies do not have at this stage. The NVIDIA endorsement and the Meta and Microsoft deals are not just headline wins; they are long-term revenue floors.
2. What to watch carefully: Nebius plans to spend $16 to $20 billion in capex this year, a figure that dwarfs its current revenue base. Free cash flow remains deeply negative. The EPS loss, while better than expected, is still a loss. And the stock is up over 600% in the past 12 months, meaning a lot of the good news is already priced in.

Nebius is an exciting AI infrastructure play sitting at the crossroads of hyperscaler demand and NVIDIA’s supply chain. But it remains a high-conviction, high-risk bet.

Instead of chasing the rally, investors should watch the next two quarters closely. If EBITDA keeps improving and capex starts turning into revenue, the case strengthens. If execution slips, the downside could be just as sharp.