Nvidia, AMD’s 15% China-Revenue Deal; National Security Has a Price Tag?

Nvidia and AMD have signed on to give the US government 15% of their revenue from select AI chip sales in China. The condition is for obtaining export licenses for their advanced chips like Nvidia’s H20 and AMD’s MI308. This comes not long after the US allowed Nvidia to resume chip export to China. Export controls have always focused on national security not on monetizing a company’s success abroad.

This arrangement is anything but ordinary. No US company has ever agreed to share revenue with the government just to resume normal business overseas.The deal turns the US government into a revenue partner rather than solely a regulator.

Let us break down with this blog how this new US rule marks an unprecedented revenue-sharing deal that can have significant economic and geopolitical impacts.

What Did Nvidia, AMD Agreed to Give Up?

Source: Nvidia’s FY24 10-K, AMD’s FY24 10-K

Nvidia in its Q1 FY25 Guidance, which was before the export ban hit, mentioned how they expected the full year revenue from China at around $23 billion, assuming Nvidia hits even 75% of its target at $17.25 billion, the cut of US Govt at 15% would come out to be around $2.6 billion, that’s worth like two whole new unicorns.

Below the numbers lies a deeper question: is this about security or profit politics? As Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation, told the BBC “You either have a national security problem or you don’t. If you have a 15% payment, it doesn’t somehow eliminate the national security issue.”

When the US Govt Becomes a Literal Stakeholder in the Chip Wars

In April 2025 the Trump administration halted exports of the H20 AI chip to China. By June those controls had loosened after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang met with the president and began lobbying aggressively. Within weeks export licenses were again being issued 

This decision is unusual because it marks a shift from traditional US trade controls into a more direct financial involvement with private companies. Normally, when the US restricts exports to countries like China, it relies on outright bans, licensing requirements, or limits on the technology specifications allowed. Here, instead of stopping sales, the government has effectively created a revenue-sharing model, taking 15% of what companies earn from these exports. 

For Nvidia and AMD, this means the US is now a stakeholder, not in ownership, but in the income stream from certain overseas sales. Such a move blurs the line between regulatory oversight and commercial participation, and shows how critical technologies like AI chips might be treated in future geopolitical disputes. It also signals that Trump sees strategic value not just in controlling technology, but in profiting from it.

A New Tool in US-China Tech Tensions

On the broader geopolitical stage, this move marks a shift in how the US could manage tech exports going forward. By tying export permissions to a revenue-sharing model, Washington is not only controlling the flow of critical technologies but also creating a new income stream from the very companies producing them.

For China it only sharpens incentives to develop domestic alternatives. Imagine paying a tax just to import strategic chips. That will push Beijing to accelerate local chip programs faster than before.

When the Hero Turns Villain: US Mirrors China’s Playbook

In Christopher Nolan’s The Dark Knight, Harvey Dent famously says, “You either die a hero, or live long enough to see yourself become the villain.” For years, the United States positioned itself as a defender of free markets, sharply criticizing China for policies like forced technology transfers, joint venture mandates, and foreign ownership caps.

Yet the Nvidia, AMD arrangement marks a sharp turn with the US imposing a China-style condition on its own companies. This not only blurs the moral high ground the US has claimed for decades, but also exposes the growing willingness of both economic powers to intervene directly in corporate operations when strategic or geopolitical interests are at stake. It is a rare moment where America’s actions resemble those it has spent years warning the world against.

What Comes Next for Nvidia, AMD and Tech Giants in General

If this experiment succeeds it may not stop here. Governments could turn strategic sectors into consistent revenue engines. For tech giants that adds another risk. In the long term it could demotivate innovation or push companies to diversify their markets outside US jurisdiction.

Nvidia and AMD’s 15% revenue sharing deal with the US government is a tectonic shift in export policy. It blurs lines between national interest and profiteering, adds strategic pressure on companies and signals a new era of revenue-minded geopolitics. For the tech trade the price tag of security is now visible in every sale. The future may depend on whether this becomes the norm or an outlier.

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