- The Unpredictability of Technology and Market Leaders
- Why Multibaggers Are Hard to Predict
- Beware of Trends: NFOs and IPOs
- Her Investing Principles: Learning, Data, Discipline
- Final Thoughts
In a recent INDmoney podcast, market veteran Devina Mehra shared her views on one of the most common investor questions: Which sectors or themes will do well in the next 10 years?
Her answer was simple but powerful: no one has a magic wand or crystal ball to predict this. And that belief shapes her entire approach to investing.
The Unpredictability of Technology and Market Leaders
On the podcast, Mehra explained why betting on long-term themes is tricky:
- Hyped technologies often fail. She cited examples like Google Glass, Apple Cars, and 3D TVs, big buzz, little impact.
- Even with successful innovations like cars and aviation, investors often lost money because so many companies failed.
- Electric cars and renewables existed for decades before gaining traction, showing how slow adoption can be.
- The list of “tech majors” keeps shifting. 25 years ago, IBM, Motorola, Cisco, and Dell were the stars. Today, only Microsoft remains on top, while Cisco, once the world’s most valuable company has faded.
Her point: today’s leaders may not stay tomorrow’s leaders. You can watch the full podcast here ⬇️
Why Multibaggers Are Hard to Predict
Mehra reminded listeners that even legendary investor Rakesh Jhunjhunwala didn’t know in advance that Titan, Crisil, and Lupin would make him billions.
Instead, she recommends:
- Holding a diversified portfolio of 25–30 stocks. Most will underperform, some will be average, and only 2-3 might become multibaggers, but these cannot be spotted upfront.
- Recognizing how rare consistency is. Out of 4,000+ Indian stocks, only about 17 showed uninterrupted earnings growth for a decade. Only HDFC Bank has done it for 20 years.
- Accepting that even companies like Apple, Amazon, Tesla, and Titan faced near-bankruptcy before their big wins.
The takeaway: Today’s leaders may not stay tomorrow’s leaders.
Beware of Trends: NFOs and IPOs
From the INDmoney podcast, Mehra gave clear warnings on trend-following:
- NFOs (New Fund Offers): If a theme fund is everywhere, it’s probably peaking. She recalled a tech fund launched before the 2000s crash that left investors with 80% losses.
- IPOs: They often come at sky-high valuations. Some, like Reliance Power and DLF, never regained their IPO price. Meanwhile, Infosys’s IPO bombed initially but turned into a mega success later.
Her advice: don’t confuse hype with opportunity.
Her Investing Principles: Learning, Data, Discipline
Mehra told the INDmoney audience that her career has always been about continuous learning. She stressed:
- Going beyond profit & loss accounts to study balance sheets, cash flows, and return ratios.
- Using AI and data-driven analysis, not emotional stories.
- Understanding mental biases, as our brains are not naturally wired for good investing (she recommends Daniel Kahneman’s work).
Above all, she believes:
- Don’t get stuck in your “circle of competence”, it’s often just a comfort zone.
- Focus on asset allocation, risk management, and global diversification.
- Accept that good investing is boring, it’s about discipline, not drama.
Final Thoughts
The INDmoney podcast with Devina Mehra makes one lesson very clear: no theme or sector will stay hot forever. The smart investor avoids chasing trends and instead builds a patient, data-backed, diversified portfolio. At last investing isn’t about excitement, it’s about steady discipline.
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