PLTR Stock in Focus; Here’s What to Expect From Palantir Q4 FY25 Earnings

There’s a quiet intensity building around one of the most talked-about stocks in tech right now. After a relentless climb in 2025, much of it fueled by artificial intelligence adoption and renewed defence spending, Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) is all set to head into its Q4 FY25 earnings report on February 2 with higher stakes than ever. 

Investors have moved past the "honeymoon phase" of AI adoption. They aren't just looking for a standard beat-and-raise; they want proof that Palantir’s commercial footprint can actually sustain this valuation once the current cycle cools.

Let’s break down with this blog what analysts, markets, and growth indicators are signaling as the company prepares to report.

What to Expect From Palantir Q4 Results

Wall Street consensus sees Palantir posting strong growth yet again. Analysts expect:

• Revenue: ~$1.34 billion (a massive 62% YoY jump).
• Adjusted EPS: ~$0.23 (up over 60% from last year).

This continued acceleration would mark another quarter where Palantir’s revenue outpaces many traditional enterprise software peers. Traders are pricing in potential volatility as the option-based projections suggest a move of roughly ±9-10% in PLTR shares after earnings.

The real danger zone? FY26 guidance. With the stock trading at a significant premium, even a slightly "cautious" tone from Alex Karp regarding next year’s outlook could trigger a sharp correction.

Key Growth Drivers Behind Palantir

While Palantir started as a defence-centric analytics firm, the real story in 2025 was growth beyond government contracts.

AI Adoption Across Commercial Clients

The company’s AI-first platform, often referenced as AIP among analysts, has driven higher spending cycles from both existing enterprise customers and new accounts. Commercial revenues have consistently grown at double-digit rates, often surpassing government segment growth.

AI adoption isn’t just a buzzword for Palantir, it’s becoming a core part of how firms handle large, complex datasets and apply analytics at scale.

Defence and Government Contracts Still Matter

Defence remains a backbone for Palantir’s revenue and future visibility. Larger, multi-year agreements, including recent contract extensions with major defence agencies in Europe and the US, continue to provide predictable revenue flows.

A new multi-year contract with the UK Ministry of Defence, valued at over £240 ($328.59) million, is one such example that highlights Palantir’s strategic positioning in defence analytics even amid broader geopolitical uncertainties.

What Happened Since Last Palantir Earnings

Palantir’s prior earnings for Q3 FY25 were well received, with the company beating revenue expectations and raising guidance for the next quarter. This set a strong momentum going into Q4 results.

Despite last quarter’s strong execution, the stock faced downward pressure due to valuation concerns, even after beating expectations. Shares slipped in early 2026 as broader software valuations softened and investors rotated toward chip and hardware names.

That dip matters because it shows that good fundamentals may not be enough without continued conviction in forward growth, especially in an AI-heated marketplace.

Where Analysts Stand On PLTR Stock

On Wall Street, opinions remain mixed:

• The Bulls see a generational shift in software and are hiking price targets accordingly.
• The Bears argue the execution risk at these price levels is simply too high.

According to data from INDmoney, the consensus currently sits at a 'HOLD.' Out of 23 analysts, 43.48% recommend holding, with an average price target of $189.84. That spread between the high and low targets is exactly why we expect such high volatility.

What Investors Should Watch During the Palantir’s Earnings Call

As the quarterly earnings release unfolds, markets will be listening closely to a few specific items:

• FY26 Revenue Projections: Can they maintain this 60%+ clip?
• Commercial Customer Velocity: Are they still onboarding new logos at the same rate?
• The Margin Story: Watch the EBITDA and Free Cash Flow margins to see if they are scaling efficiently.
• AIP Conversion: Listen for specific details on how many "bootcamp" participants are turning into long-term, high-value contracts.

Final Thoughts

Palantir’s Q4 FY25 earnings are more than just numbers. For many investors, this report will test whether the company can convert its powerful AI narrative and broadening commercial footprint into consistent, sustainable growth and not just headline revenue beats.

Whether you’re positioned for the long haul or watching for a near-term trade opportunity, this earnings cadence has the potential to be a defining inflection point in Palantir’s 2026 story.

Disclaimer:

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