- What happened
- Why it matters
- The financial angle investors are watching
- What we do not know yet
- Key things to track in the coming days
- Big picture for HAL
- Disclaimer
HAL shares may slip after a Tejas fighter aircraft crashed during a demo flight at the Dubai Air Show on 21 November 2025. The event came at a sensitive time because HAL has been preparing for higher Tejas deliveries and growing interest from export markets. With sentiment turning cautious, the stock may remain weak in the coming week as more details emerge from the investigation.
What happened
A Tejas light combat aircraft crashed during a demonstration flight at the Dubai Air Show on 21 November 2025. According to reports, the crash took place around 14:10 local time at Al Maktoum International Airport.
Eyewitnesses said the aircraft lost altitude during a manoeuvre and black smoke was seen from the crash site. The pilot has been confirmed dead.
Why it matters
The Tejas programme plays an important role in India’s plan to build and scale indigenous fighter jets. It is also central to HAL’s future revenue because the company is increasing production capacity and preparing to deliver more aircraft every year. A high-profile crash during an international air show raises questions about safety, performance under show conditions and operational risk.
From the market’s point of view, the worry is about future demand and investor confidence. This is because Tejas is not only a defence project but also a key factor in HAL’s long-term growth story. Any negative publicity can affect export discussions and perception among potential buyers.
The financial angle investors are watching
HAL’s FY25 numbers show that export revenue grew from about ₹310 crore in FY24 to nearly ₹400 crore in FY25. While this is still a small part of HAL’s business, exports have been rising steadily and Tejas is one of the main aircraft shown to international buyers.
HAL has also prepared multiple production lines to increase manufacturing capacity for the Tejas Mark 1A. As engine supply issues ease, HAL expects to deliver many more aircraft over the next few years. Because of this, a crash involving Tejas can influence how global audiences view the aircraft and whether upcoming deals progress smoothly.
What we do not know yet
There is still no official confirmation on what caused the crash.The investigation will examine whether it was a mechanical issue, pilot error or something related to the show environment.It is also unclear whether this incident will affect short-term Tejas deliveries or lead to additional checks on existing aircraft.There is no announcement yet on changes to export plans or domestic contracts.
Key things to track in the coming days
- Investors will watch for any statement from HAL or the Indian Air Force on operational impact.
- Any update on inspections, delivery timelines and safety checks will influence market sentiment.
- Markets may also react to news on whether the crash affects interest from countries that were evaluating Tejas for purchase.
- Since Tejas was performing at an international stage, the crash may create hesitation among prospective buyers.
- If the investigation finds no fault with the aircraft design, the impact on HAL’s reputation may reduce. But until clarity comes, the stock may continue to see pressure.
Big picture for HAL
HAL remains financially strong. The company reported revenue from operations of about ₹30,980 crore in FY25 and profit after tax of ₹8,316 crore. Export income rose nearly 29 percent.
However, the Tejas programme has become increasingly important for HAL’s growth and India’s defence exports. This is why the crash has created a sharper reaction in the stock despite the company’s overall strong performance. Once the investigation report is out and more clarity emerges, markets will be able to judge whether this is a short-term sentiment shock or something that affects HAL’s long-term plans.
Disclaimer
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